2007 Wrap-up
Isn’t it soooo late to do a wrap-up of 2007? Well I never say too late to reminisce about anything, to learn and improve above past mistakes and successes. 2007 is a pretty good year and somewhat interesting for me. In 2007 (which is several days past) is where my life is at a crossroad. 3 major point of my life last year is Teknopreneur (which is still going right now, although I have resigned and now only contribute sporadically - if any), final paper, and trading.
Teknopreneur: The Magazine
The first one is the one where I really brushed up shoulder to shoulder to the tough media industry. Apparently from my short stint on the industry, only slim chance for any new players to succeed on traditional media business (that is, the old business model of print media, you provide the content and sell it). In fact, the reality that the magazine is still holding its ground (albeit at some point, struggling) is a remarkable achievement. I wish the current team well and a better year for 2008. There’s still so much potential in it that I believe with some twist on the business and delivery model, it can be a huge success for it.
There are lots of wrong that we did in this business. The one that hit us badly is the bad deal with both distributors and early advertisers. Generally we strike the usual deal with magazine distributors such as x% of our printed price will be shared among distributors and/or retailers. However in practice, there’s this one distributor that operates on one of our biggest market segment that marks up the price extravagantly. This made the magazine isn’t enticing if compared to other thicker and more established competitors.
And to make matter worse, even before that unauthorized markups, our magazine can be categorized as expensive. The business team priced the magazine to aim at BusinessWeek, Fortune, and the likes. Of course as a new magazine, the disparity between the two side is as deep as grand canyon. We don’t hold a candle in term of design, journalistic quality, and news source. Next time I believe we should start on the lower end of the price and gradually increasing it along with quality and quantity.
Final Paper
On to the next big thing, my final paper. I defend it to the panelist in May and graduated in August. The topic of discussion is how to design a better artificial neural network system to use to trade stock in equity market. The premise is from the abundance of option chain data we (the system) can disseminate a lot of information base to form a pattern. I ground this theory from the system that is used by many hedge funds in the US that manages a ridiculous amount of money and still can average a lot better than the benchmark (notably, S&P500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial).
At the time (that is before sub-prime mortgage crisis turn to be an all-out credit crisis) I designed a system that performed better than the standard MLP system that commonly used in the industry. Of course I’m very excited because that will give me a good take-off to open my own fund management (based on neural network). But boy, am I in for a ride to the next 5 months. The very same Wall Street companies that used alteration of the model, in which has performed very good for the past several years, actually went bankrupt when volatility spikes on the market. Big guns such as Bear Sterns and Merril Lynch found that some of their hedge funds must be declared bankrupt due to the severity of the market (although they don’t really use that model to trade stock but MBS).
One thing that I regret the most about this is, I delayed stuffs too much. It took me 8 months to finish this paper when in fact, my effective time doing it is probably less than a month. This tendency-to-delay-mentality is really costing me a lot of time in 2007. This one is going to my 2008 resolutions list.
Trading
And that of course will lead us to the last big thing on 2007: my trading. I have been trading in the market for several years now but on that August, I have made a jump to trade the US options market. Shifting my focus totally and exclusively trading options and turn my back to Indonesia equity market (which have performed admirably well, up more than 50%, second only to Shanghai market I believe). Boy am I in for a rough ride. But despite all the turbulence, my performance since early August till end of December is admirably well.
While the major benchmark is pretty much flat since August (Nasdaq up 4.5%, S&P500 up 0.9%, DJ30 up 0.4%), my total portfolio value went up 280%+. I have every reason to be thankful on that kind of performance considering most of Wall Street crooks doesn’t even survive the year, although if compared to peers that trade exclusively options my return don’t actually hold waters because we have to win big in order to tolerate the risk inherited with options trading (mind you, options can be both safe and risky depending on the strategy that you use, I’m using directional strategy for aggressive capital growth).
Again, here’s the major flaw on my trading “system”: I have a lousy risk management and too impatient to wait for the buy/sell signal. How bad? Let’s just say, I reached 400% return on December but gave it all away on the last 2 weeks of the year. It’s THAT bad. I’m holding off to a position for far too long. I know when to open a position, but I found out that the hardest part is to know when to CLOSE that position. It’s a newbie mistake of course. I guess I never experienced that kind of problem in the past is because I don’t use much leverage. Now with options, everything is leveraged 2,4,5 even sometimes 10 times so any profit can be magnified by those leverages but so does a loss. I’m still working on this system of course as the lack of proper risk control already cost me 7%+ YTD, and mind you, the year has just begun! Several ideas come to mind, but I guess that’s for another blog post.
Oh, starting today, I’m going to write regularly again about the stocks that I’m watching so stay tuned late in the day
Another Day Another Volatile Session
It’s another day and currently the third trading day for me after holiday. Still got a lot catching up to do. The portfolio return also fluctuate a lot since I’m not disciplined to take profits. The overall return touched almost as high as 75%+ today but I have to settle for something around 68%.
And I also postponed the use of additional fund for my account, just putting it for fulfilling the day trading minimum requirement only, probably I’ll wait till my May portfolio account size went over 100% then I’ll consider adding additional money.
Very sorry since I can’t add anymore review lately because as I said, I have a lot to catching up and with my increasing tendency toward day trading it’s pretty hard to look for opportunities, then take the trade, then post it here. However, once the volatility in the market ceased, I promised to post more of my usual stock review :-)
Now I’m very tired (it’s Thursday morning here) and still have to drive to my parents house for the fasting season (I promised them). Last but not least, I offer you all my apologize for my wrong doings all this time. Happy Ramadhan and Happy fasting! May there’s no violence anymore on earth :-)
End of Holiday
It’s the end of holiday and I’m already at Jakarta. Will be back tomorrow to Bandung and start trading again. Near the end of my vacation, when I transited in Dubai, guess who I met…
It’s Muhammad Yunus him self — on the way to Seoul Korea!
A very sweet closure of this whole holiday. Now back to the daily grind!
PS: I’m the one in the right with the jacket
I Don’t Like What I Hear
So Bush and Bernanke spoke yesterday (or is it earlier today? — jet-lagged here, currently on transit “somewhere”) but I don’t really like what they have to offer. Bernanke spoke that The Fed will do everything it can to save the financial industry, ahem, I mean credit crunch. Those speech in retrospect will make the stock market immature, by bailing out the capital market now The Fed and Bush made a clear message that if something bad happened someday in the future (be it because insane risk assessment, craaaaazy leverage, or other thing that is done by the hedge fund that forgot to hedge), they will be there for the rescue.
In effect, this will make our capital market (well, US market do has a global influence) spoiled and will make even riskier bets in the future. I choose any day now another 10% drop from where we are now (or yesterday, on Thursday) than a 20% jump because of the news conference.
I’m still going to day trade the market for the next couple of weeks although we are already break the 13300 Dow Jones bearish resistance line and only MA50 now holds yesterday’s rally (or today? Good God, I really lost the track of time), basically we already out of the July-August correction range. I’m going to keep an eye on the market every time I have an open connection or get access to CNBC/Bloomberg. Gotta catch a flight, see you guys later.
Off for a Holiday!
It’s official now, I’m off for holiday! It’s still in the middle of the day but I already closed all of my position. This last two weeks have been amazing. My portfolio got beaten up before but for the range between late May till late August (that’s today), it’s been up (as in “net profit”) for 57.7% (three quarter of that came from the last two weeks). Ahead of tomorrow’s Bernanke speech my position is all cash. I told you before that I don’t like “gambling” on earning and this speech’s effect can be like earning but in a grander scale.
I’m not going to be around till around 10th of September (that a day after next week). 5 trading days not in front of a monitor might get me a good dose of sanity, this month made me age several years older because of the extreme fluctuation of the market (hence my account), the opportunity won’t go anywhere because there’s opportunity EVERY DAY for traders.
Can’t post my live trading session for a couple of days since due to the volatility reason (the market is CRAAAAAZY I tell ya!), it’s just very hard to do the trade and posting it on my blog at the same time. See you guys around!
On another note, The option of wireless internet provides a better way to gain maximum on your investments. The return on these investments would be higher when you choose the option of pay per click. The option of email marketing enables you to capture the maximum market across the borders through the process of best ecommerce hosting services. These services are provided by many companies whose web hosting services are not even cheap but also free from time cost. The companies are providing their dedicated hosting services not only to promote their business but also enhancing the internet marketing. These all business hosting services together forms the field of internet marketing that would market your services. The web template guide helps you to design the best template for your site.
Market’s Toying With Us
After 277 point down, the market swing at us with full force to close higher. So where actually are we? There’s no positive news yesterday so I believe that the rally is still based on technical factors (bottom fishing everyone?) in which does not justify a sustainable moves. (NCTY is not a very smart move, why the heck did I break my vow to not trade anymore earning plays? Although XLF dipped briefly so I can unload at break even)
However, with Friday’s looming for Bernanke’s speech (and possible sign of a rate cut), I believe that we will see INDU test 13300 level. If it breaks, I’m going to throw more cash into the trade (currently 80% cash) still conservatively waiting for Friday’s speech. This Thursday is going to be a good day to trade ;-)
Here’s the level that INDU must break (didn’t post COMPQ’s or SPX’s chart because both already broke its short term bearish resistance):
NCTY Post Lower Q2 Earnings
Okay this is so not good: http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/08/28/ap4062676.html
The stock is currently down 13% from closing, so not good for my position (didn’t enter strangle or straddle — thinking that the China’s gaming industry is booming). This is so not me. I have to get back into my discipline to NOT playing earnings (or playing it from the safety net of straddle or strangle). This loss could easily shaved around 5-10% of my profit from last May (that means I’m back to my last week’s position). Darn.
Another Bloodbath
Dow Jones plunged yet again in what can be considered the biggest 1-day decline since early August. My trading position took a hit today after gaining quite a lot on previous trading session. The profit that hasn’t been closed was asked back by the market but the overall performance of my portfolio is still in line with a 100% a year target (currently +41%ish).
I still can’t shrug off my old bad habit. When my position took a hit, I usually over trade and I over trade A LOT. And this gives my account a disadvantage especially because the commission is hiking and the trade that I made usually does mediocre at best.
Currently heavy on cash (more than 80% cash) with market neutral position (put position on XLF and call position on NYCT earning play). With a broad market down like this, it will be no surprise that we will see overnight market in Asia will get pushed down and Europe will also feel some selling pressure tomorrow at least before Bernanke speech on Friday.
On another note, I’m going on holiday starting next week so the blog will be light on capital market content. After the holiday I’m going to try scaling my trading since I’m planning to add more cash into the trading account so starting early September, I’m going to “restart” my ROI calculation relative to portfolio. Hopefully with the new cash added, I can still maintain a good 2007 performance. So far it’s 77% between February-April, and 41% from May-August. There’s a ROI calculation reset between April and May since I added more cash to the account at the time. See you guys tomorrow!
A Very Good Week, A Very Tired Trader
This week has been an emotional roller coaster (just like the market, although we closed higher for the week for most of the market). This Friday I closed out SPWR (after averaging it down a little, a sin, I know) for almost $1 loss on the trade, sold NVDA for quite a proft (sold @$3.1, bought back at $2.55 but got giddy and sold again at $2.5). The other trade such as AAPL, AMZN, and DIA is giving a great boost to the ROI % this week including some new and quick play yesterday such as VMW, EMC, some metal stocks, and some chinese stocks (shang hai just broke 5000!). Total net profit since May is 30+% (total portfolio growth that is), not bad though not as good as I wanted it to be.
Going to post more later, I’m just really tired for the week. See you later
Live Trade 22th August
Going to long put PALM now, Sept 21 ‘07 15 put @ $0.70, unfilled
Going to go long call AAPL now, Sept 21 ‘07 125 call @ $10, filled. Average position @ $9.8. AAPL’s candle not looking good. The market is still holding though
Going to go long INTC now, Oct 19 ‘07 22.5 call @$ 2.25, filled, averaging position @ 2.2 filled
Going to go long SPWR now, Sept 21 ‘07 65 call @ $3.6, filled. Darn I can’t believe I’m impatient on this stock, again! Should’ve wait so I could get a lower fill. Averaging position @$3.8 unfilled (canceled) and @$4.2 filled — Closed all @ $4.6. Going back in @ $4.5 half.
Going to go long DIA now, Sept 21 ‘07 132 call @ $3.1, filled. I specifically took this position because until now the market can hold its ground. I might close this trade early if somehow the market retreats.
Going to go long LUV now, Sept 21 ‘07 15 call @ $0.8, filled. Oil price is just zig zagging around $70ish and lower. Unfortunately, the options isn’t too liquid. Going to take a loss here and sold @ $0.7 filled
Going to go long AMZN now, Sept 21 ‘07 75 call @ $5.3 filled — Closed all @ $5.8, not bad for a day trade.
Going to go long (a very small portion) to NVDA now, Sept 21 ‘07 47.5 call @ $2.8 filled
11AM - market is wavering…
Going to go long on FCX, Sept 21 ‘07 85 put @ $4.3 filled — Close all @ $4.4, quite nervous on this trade and probably booked too fast for profit. But hey, profit is profit no matter how small that is :-)
I’m off for today, any unclosed trade will be carried out over night. See you guys tomorrow
On another note, The companies with cheap web hosting are trying to provide better services in acceptable prices. Their dedicated hosting is making them popular among different famous seo businesses. The companies serving with cheapest domain name registration provides services within minimum time. Their best email hosting services aren’t cheap but also provide different helps during your new business launching. The internet has provides useful software that makes the business on net more comfortable. Among these softwareÃs are backup software, these softwares are almost free of cost and are important in order to keep the business secrecy. The email marketing provides the new door for the companies.
Welcome to Permagnus.com
Permagnus.com is a financial weblog maintained by me (Oskar Syahbana) that contains information about capital market. It details the trades I made (let's face it, I'm bad at keeping a trading journal - so for me this is more like an open trading journal for everyone to see), real life trading lessons, and many more. Simply, it's a trading site with a human touch.
Recent Comments